Lisa Biagiotti (WorldFocus.org) November 11, 2009
The violent, separatist conflict in southeastern Ethiopia known as the
Somali region or Ogaden has been referred by some as the next Darfur
. The
conflict has claimed thousands of lives over the last 15 years.
Ethiopia sealed off the region to media so there is little accurate
information about the conflict, including claims of human rights abuses.
The region is rich in natural gas and is home to about 5 million people,
mainly ethnic and Muslim Somali nomadic tribes. The U.S. has said little
about the conflict, as Ethiopia is its main regional ally in the
increasingly unstable Horn of Africa region.
Worldfocus interviewed David H. Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia
and Burkina Faso. Amb. Shinn is currently an adjunct professor of
international affairs at The George Washington University’s Elliott School
of International Affairs. His research interests include China-Africa
relations, East Africa and the Horn, terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism,
conflict situations, U.S. policy in Africa and the African brain drain.
Worldfocus: Ethiopia has labeled the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)
as a terrorist organization. Is this an accurate description?
Amb. Shinn: While the ONLF has on occasion used tactics that qualify as
terrorist — for example the kidnapping and/or killing of civilian Ethiopian
government officials — it does not have any links of which I am aware with
international terrorist organizations.
It receives external support from the government of Eritrea, which opposes
the government of Ethiopia. It also receives financial assistance from
Ogadenis in the Somali Diaspora. In 2007, 74 persons, including nine Chinese
oil field personnel, were killed during an ONLF attack on a Chinese oil
exploration work site in the Ogaden protected by Ethiopian troops.
The Chinese may have died in a crossfire between Ethiopian and ONLF forces.
In the view of the U.S. government, ONLF activity so far does not meet the
test of a terrorist organization. Should the ONLF escalate its tactics,
however, this could change.
Worldfocus: The U.S. denied Ethiopia’s request to label the ONLF an
international terrorist organization but also remained silent on claims that
the Ogaden region is potentially the next Darfur. Ethiopia has shut down
media access to the region, so accusations of human rights abuses are
unconfirmed. Should the U.S. and other Western countries be speaking out?
Amb. Shinn: On those occasions when there are carefully documented human
rights violations by the government of Ethiopia, the ONLF or any other
organization, the U.S. and the rest of the world should speak out.
Virtually all of the information coming out of the Ogaden comes from either
the Ethiopian government or the ONLF. Much of the information from both
sides is unreliable. The problem, therefore, is making certain that accurate
information exists before speaking out publicly. A good start would be a
willingness by the Ethiopian government to allow independent, third party
observers into the Ogaden to provide information about events there.
Worldfocus: Do the 4.5 million ethnic Somalis living in the region mostly
support the ONLF? Do the majority of Ogadenis want to secede from Ethiopia?
Men chewing khat in Jigjiga, the capital of Ogaden. Photo: Flickr user
CharlesFred
Amb. Shinn: It is impossible to know with any certainty what Somalis in
southeastern Ethiopia really want. Because of the difficult security
situation, there are no public opinion polls in the area. I think it is
reasonable to conclude that the vast majority of Somalis feel marginalized
in their own country and that most of them have legitimate grievances
against government policies. But do most of them support the ONLF? There is
no conclusive evidence.
Not all of the Somalis living in Ethiopia’s Region Five or Somali Region are
ethnic Ogaden Somalis. There are significant numbers of non-Ogaden Darod,
Isaaq and Dir. Ogadeni from the Darod clan constitute the most numerous
group of Somalis and occupy the largest geographical part of the region.
While there may be widespread support for the ONLF by the majority Ogadeni,
many Somalis from other clans are concerned about Ogadeni domination. It is
even less clear whether the Ogadeni who support the ONLF agree on a
political outcome for the region.
Worldfocus: Do Ogadenis have irredentist tendencies, and what is their
relationship with Somalia?
Amb. Shinn: In March 2009, there was a leadership split in the organization.
The leader of the main faction of the ONLF, Mohamed Omar Osman, is on the
record as saying that he wants to hold a referendum so that the Somalis in
the region can determine if they wish to remain part of Ethiopia, become an
independent country or join with Somalia. It is my understanding that the
leadership of both factions of the ONLF prefers an independent Ogaden.
Worldfocus: With national elections slotted for next May, what is at stake
for the ONLF and their representation or lack thereof in the Ethiopian
government?
Amb. Shinn: Ethiopian national elections in May 2010 will probably change
nothing in the Ogaden. Because of the difficult security situation, it is
doubtful that elections can even take place in much of Somali Region.
The ONLF, although it participated in the government as a political
organization from 1991 to 1994, has shown no interest in rejoining the
political process. Even if it believed that the Ethiopian government would
allow it to compete freely and fairly as a political party, which it does
not believe to be the case, it does not appear that the ONLF is prepared to
lay down its arms.
The head of the original ONLF faction, Mohamed Omar Osman, did state in
October 2009 that he is prepared to engage in negotiations with the
Ethiopian government, but only in the presence of a neutral third party and
in a neutral location.
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