October 3, 2014: Libya has come apart as a nation. What matters most now is
the oil money, which pays for everything. The cash from oil sales is going
into the Central bank, which tends to answer to the Tobruk parliaments
because that is the one with international recognition and that provides
access to the international banking system. The various factions are
pressuring the Central Bank and courts to favor them but it is the
international community that controls the ability of Libya to buy essential
(most of the food and everything else) needed to keep Libyans alive. The
internationally recognized government has set up shop in the small port city
of Tobruk (1,600 kilometers east of Tripoli). What remains of the pre-June
government has moved from Tripoli to Tobruk. Many other government offices
moved as well and are finding space where they can. One government agency
that did not move is the central bank and the rebel government and the
Tobruk one are fighting over who controls more than $100 billion held by the
central bank. A lot of that cash is overseas and since Tobruk has
international and UN support the Tripoli rebels will have a hard time
maintaining control of oil income.
The UN has also been trying, without much success, to get the major militias
from Tripoli and Benghazi to join peace negotiations. This has not worked
because so many of the militia leaders are unwilling to compromise and many
refuse to even enter negotiations. All this was made clear as the UN sought
to hold peace negotiations on September 29th in the southwestern city of
Ghadames. With the failure of those talks the UN is now threatening economic
sanctions against the major rebel militias and, more importantly, the
leaders of those militias. Many of those leaders have moved assets and
family members out of Libya. Nearly a third of the Libyan population has
left the country because of the continued chaos and uncertainty.
All this is complicated by the fact that most of the armed groups cannot
agree with each other. Most fight for their tribe or hometown. Some,
especially in Benghazi, are Islamic radicals seeking a religious
dictatorship that few Libyans want. There are radical groups all over the
country, but mainly in Benghazi (and nearby towns) as well as (to a lesser
extent) Tripoli. Many militias say they are fighting to prevent pro-Kaddafi
(largely Arab) groups from taking back power. There are some pro-Kaddafi
militias but they are very much a minority. Libya is becoming a failed
state, similar to what happened to Somalia after the 1990 anti-government
rebellion and in Afghanistan after the Russians left in 1987. In Somalia
Islamic terrorist groups (mainly al Shabaab) eventually tried to take over,
but failed. In Afghanistan it was the Taliban, which took over most of the
country in the late 1990s, but was overthrown in late 2001 when the U.S.
came to the aid of the tribes that were still fighting the Taliban. The
clear lesson here is that someone will have to intervene to prevent the
Islamic terrorists from gaining too much control over the country, or simply
to stop the violence before the economy (oil industry) is destroyed. At the
moment no one is stepping forward to intervene, mainly because it is an
expensive and thankless job. Someone may still intervene to back the
government and that is what the government is hoping for.
The main cause of this is disunity is that the various factions cannot agree
on much The GNC (originally formed in mid-2012 to create a new constitution
for the country to vote on and rule until that was done) became popular with
Islamic terrorist militias and some tribal and more secular groups. The GNC
has long had the support of most Islamic radical groups, especially Ansar al
Sharia in Benghazi. This group was responsible for the 2012 attack that
killed the American ambassador. Many of the militias from Misrata (east of
Tripoli) support GNC, but many also back rebel general Hiftar or are
neutral. Because the GNC has been hijacked by the Islamic radicals Hiftar
sees it as illegitimate. Even many Islamic terrorists don't trust the new
parliament or the GNC. The Hiftar coalition of tribal militias and army
units is not large enough to take on all the Islamic terrorist militias but
continues to battle Islamic terrorist groups in Benghazi. Hiftar supports
the new parliament and rule of law and is no longer considered a rebel. In
turn Hiftar is believed to have active support from Egypt and the UAE
(United Arab Emirates) while some of the militias are receiving support from
Sudan and Qatar.
The two largest cities (Tripoli and Benghazi) are still being fought over,
but the real prize is the oil. At the moment the new parliament controls
many oil fields and the oil export terminals. Production is growing and is
expected to reach a million barrels a day by the end of the month and 1.5
million by the end of the year. If the oil facilities are damaged in the
fighting it could take a year or more to restore production. Oil revenue is
what keeps the economy going, which is one reason the oil industry has not
suffered much battle damage since the original 2011 revolution. But if the
oil income is interrupted because of battle damage most Libyans would be
dependent on foreign charity to just survive. All over the country local
militias and tribal leaders are deciding which parliament to support. It is
believed that most will follow the money, the oil money.
The main problem in Libya is many (over 1,500) armed groups. Most are local
and exist mainly for self- defense. Only a minority (under ten percent) of
these militias are involved in the current violence in Tripoli and Benghazi.
Most of the militias are organized into coalitions, mainly for mutual
support and because of some shared beliefs. The largest of these is the Fajr
Libya Misrata militias. Then there is Ansar al Sharia, the largest Islamic
terrorist group in Benghazi. This group was responsible for the 2012 attack
that killed the American ambassador and has most of its strength in the east
(around Benghazi). The al Zintan Revolutionaries Military Council is based
in the mountains southwest of Tripoli in and around the Berber town of
Zintan.
Fajr Libya also asked the Islamic terrorist dominated GNC to reform and meet
in Tripoli to run the country. The revived GNC has declared itself the
legitimate parliament, insisting that the June vote was invalid. Only 19
percent of eligible voters and 27 percent of registered voters showed up for
the June 25th parliamentary elections (the first since Kaddafi was
overthrown in 2011). Voters were discouraged by all the violence,
factionalism and poor performance of those elected the first time around for
the GNC. But the June vote was accepted by most Libyans and the GNC was
officially replaced by a new parliament. This was largely because at the end
of 2013 the deadlocked GNC extended its power for another year. This was
seen by many Libyans as an illegal act. The GNC pointed out that separatist
activity in the east prevented any national vote and that had to be dealt
with before a constitution could be completed and approved. This was an
impossible situation for the GNC and the Islamic radicals were hoping to
take advantage of it.
Despite all the chaos in Tripoli and Benghazi the government has managed to
get oil exports going again. By mid-September 0il production has increased
to over 900,000 barrels a day which is about 60 percent of normal output.
This was a high for 2014 and has since been cut over 20 percent as various
local groups shut down production in as effort to get a larger share of oil
money. In June production was closer to 100,000 barrels a day but government
negotiators have had a lot of success since then getting various militias to
stop blockading production and shipping facilities. Unfortunately these
deals often collapse later and new pressure groups decide to try and
blockade something and succeed at it. Getting the oil production back to
normal is essential because Libya imports nearly all its food and much else
besides. Oil income pays for 95 percent of the government budget and is 65
percent of GDP. Oil is what pays for it and without oil money most Libyans
would literally starve. This possibility is getting more attention from
militia leaders, who are in turn hearing from their own followers about it.
The militias also feed, indirectly, off the oil income because most militias
maintain their armed strength by stealing and extorting cash and goods from
locals to pay their people and supply them with essentials. Without that
most militias would melt away to a few hardcore members and become
irrelevant. Another problem with oil is the declining price (now about $96 a
barrel). Lower world demand and rapidly growing supplies of North American
oil and gas obtained with the new fracking technology is driving down (over
14 percent this year) the price of oil.
All the fighting in the last three months has left over 1,500 dead, many of
them civilians caught in the crossfire. This is not as violent as Syria or
Iraq, but more like what is going on in Nigeria and Somalia, which also
suffer from Islamic terrorist violence (Boko Haram and al Shabaab
respectively). Most large militia have a lot of Kaddafi era mortars,
artillery and rocket launchers and like to use this stuff to fire in the
general direction of whoever they are fighting with. This poorly aimed fire
often lands on nearby residential areas forcing civilians to flee. The
fighting is not conventional, as in "front lines", clearly identified (by
uniforms and symbols) fighters (especially with the militias) and a sense of
an overall plan. The Islamic terrorist militias doing the fighting have
largely (as in not always) been cut off from their government benefits (like
regular pay). In most of the countries the local militias are what passes
for police and their government pay is what keeps most of the militiamen
quiet. The inability of the Islamic terrorist militias to run a government
(in Libya and elsewhere) limits their popularity. But there are enough young
men with guns who believe, at least for the moment, in Islamic radicalism to
keep the Islamic terrorist militias a threat to the country. In Tripoli and
Benghazi the Islamic terrorist militias still favor ambushes, assassinations
and kidnappings as opposed to attacks on organized forces (the military or
some of the better run militias).
Since August some 5,000 members of parliament, their families, bodyguards
and various other staff have arrived in Tobruk and set up show in a seaside
resort complex. Currently only about 60 percent of the 200 members of
parliament are in attendance. Some have refused to attend, others were
called back to their constituencies temporarily or permanently/ If the
Tobruk parliament demonstrates continued control over the oil money and
imports, more elected members of parliament will show up for work. One of
the anti-Islamic terrorists warlords, general Hiftar, has set up bases in
Tobruk, including an air base. This contains some of the warplanes and
helicopters Hiftar controls. The Tobruk parliament is calling on foreign
nations for help in defeating the rebel militias in Tripoli and Benghazi. At
the same time many Libyans blame NATO for all their problems. The logic of
this is that NATO air support for the rebels in 2011 allowed the many
militias to defeat Kaddafi and then create chaos. More thoughtful Libyans,
although a minority, understand that the lack of willingness by most Libyans
to negotiate and compromise is the real cause of the current mess and a
major part of any solution is recognizing what is really going on rather
than blaming the mess on foreigners.
Egypt has offered to train Libyan Army soldiers, something which several
NATO nations have already been doing. Egypt has the advantage of using Arab
trainers who speak fluent Arabic and have a cultural affinity for what
Libyans are going through. Egypt also offered to share intelligence it has
on Libyan militias, especially those in the east (Benghazi) because some of
these groups threaten Egypt and Egypt would like to see all the Islamic
terrorist groups gone from Benghazi and Libya in general. That would help
reduce the weapons smuggling activity which mainly goes through Egypt.
This cultural affinity is important. That was seen as Britain recently
revealed that in August they had to deal with a mutiny among 300 Libyan
soldiers being trained at a British base. The Libyans were selected to
receive combat and leadership training so they could better train and
command Libyan soldiers back in Libya. The mutiny occurred when British
officers in charge of the training put three of the trainees under guard
after police picked them up for being off base without permission. Then
twenty other trainees went and threatened the British soldier guarding the
three Libyan trainees. The British guard let the three go free rather than
risk violence. Senior officers were uncertain about how to handle this
insubordination given the nature of Arab military trainees. What happened
with these Libyans was not uncommon when Westerners are assigned to train
Arabs to be military leaders. What these trainers run into is a collection
of problems that have long made it difficult for Arab, and many other poor
(and often Moslem) nations to establish democratic governments or prosperous
economies. A lot of the problem has to do with culture, especially culture
influenced by Islam. There are a number of reasons for this and the most
important problems are tribalism, different attitudes towards learning,
leading and training.
Since 2011 over 30 percent of the population has fled Libya, most of them to
neighboring Tunisia. That was easy to do because about 85 percent of Libya's
six million people live along the coast. Some five percent are still
nomadic. Other minorities comprise about six percent of the population.
Nearly 100 percent of the population speaks at least some Arabic and 97
percent are Sunni Moslems. The Berber are Sunni but were never big on
Islamic radicalism. Kaddafi saw the Berbers as a threat because they were
not Arab but had, for over a thousand years, resisted Arab domination. The
Berber nationalists have also been holding demonstrations outside oil
facilities in the West, interfering with oil production.
Joining the civilian refugees are (so far) over 150,000 foreign workers, who
do a lot of the technical work (especially medical or oil related) and some
of the harshest manual jobs. This has caused the government to become even
more unresponsive.
October 2, 2014: In Benghazi general Hiftar's forces suffered over 80
casualties (including at least 13 dead) as they fought with Islamic
terrorist militias. Hiftar does have some better armed, trained and led
fighters, as well as a number of militia allies. It is unclear if Hiftar has
enough to really defeat the Benghazi militias. Most of the fighting recently
has been around the Benghazi airport, which some Islamic terrorist militias
are trying to seize. Today's violence was in part around the airport, which
the Islamic terrorists continue to attack.
October 1, 2014: The army, which is loyal to the Tobruk parliament, said it
would halt military operations in response to a UN call for a ceasefire.
Some rebel militias agreed but the ceasefire effort quickly fell apart
because most militias refused to participate and kept on fighting.
September 29, 2014: In the east (south of Benghazi) a militia kidnapped 70
Egyptian truck drivers and demanded that the Egyptian government release one
of the militia leaders who had been arrested in Egypt for smuggling and
other crimes.
September 28, 2014: The Tobruk parliament swore in the prime minister and
other ministers that were finally selected after weeks of negotiations.
September 27, 2014: The Libya parliament called on the world to allow them
to import weapons and to supply more military assistance, including troops
and air power, to make it possible to suppress the rebel militias that
control most of the country.
September 26, 2014: Just across the border in Tunisia four soldiers were
wounded during a clash with smugglers trying to get 30 truckloads of goods
into Libya.
September 24, 2014: One of general Hiftar's warplanes dropped a bomb near a
dock in Benghazi harbor to convince the port operator that Hiftar could
destroy the port facilities if the port continued to bring in weapons and
other supplies for Islamic terrorist militias there.
September 19, 2014: In the east (Benghazi) a series of assassinations in the
last two days left at least ten journalists and peace group leaders dead,
apparently an attempt by Islamic terrorists to silence opposition.
September 18, 2014: Egypt has advised trucking companies to carefully
choose which areas in Libya they allow their vehicles to operate. These
trucks, bringing in legal goods, are subject to extortion, theft or
kidnapping from the many militias operating in eastern Libya.
September 16, 2014: In the east (Benghazi) fighting between Islamic
terrorists and government forces (now including those of the former rebel
general Hiftar) left at least nine dead and over twenty wounded.
September 14, 2014: The government of Libya once again accused Sudan of
providing extremist Islamist militias and terror groups in Libya with
weapons. Libya's prime minister rejected Sudan's claim that it is not
supplying these groups. Libya claimed that the Sudanese transport plane
which entered Libyan air space on September 7 and landed at Tripoli, was
loaded with weapons at an airfield in Sudan.
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